Opinion

Basha's "mission" and the frightening reality of the polls

Basha's "mission" and the frightening reality of the polls

By Plator Nesturi / Every time there is a decrease in the credits of the opposition leader, so many times in the DP its leader rhymes the same verses of union and unity. Once calling on the departed to return to their families, as happened when Basha addressed Patoz, Alizot or Topalli and the other departed to enter the common shelter of the PD. But while this ritual has been misused as the only formula over the years in the face of criticism from oneself and demands for resignation, Basha no longer even has a chance to use it. Elections are on the verge and campaign letters have been distributed. Some of the former DP leaders have already entered as his rivals in the election race with new parties.

The new scheme of the DP leader to keep alive the role of the irreplaceable as the leader of the opposition was the book "My Mission", an attempt to build a missing idol, as long as Berisha has left the podium, at least in appearance. Of course, this is part of the electoral strategy where everything is done to raise the image of the candidate for prime minister, as well as to mobilize the electorate and maximize votes.

But the real figures of how much it has yielded results on the ground seem far from the expectations of a force that has been in opposition for 8 years. The unification scheme of the opposition seems to be the former first failure of the opposition leadership. This was not only not achieved because Topalli, Patozi and someone else will already play their game and ask for votes in the right manger, but also because of the change in the rules of the election game. SMI competes in the single list and this leads to arithmetic multiplication of votes but loss of seats in different regions. The polls themselves point this out. Even the poll conducted by Ora News and Noto, which seems to raise the opposition to a tipping point, compared to those conducted by other institutes and reflected on other screens, does not present any optimism for the opposition figures.

Kështu, sipas Notos, në rajonin e Tiranës PS vijon të ruajë të njëjtin rezultat me një mesatare prej 48 %, PD ka rritje që shkon në 42-43 %, dhe ndërkohë LSI, sipas saj, kuotohet tek mesatarja e 7%. Në të gjitha rastet pra vërehet se kemi rritje të PD dhe një tkurrje drastike të LSI në parashikime. Sidoqoftë, në grafikun e sondazhit jepet se opozita me një grumbullim matematik është përpara në vota krahasuar me PS. Kapja në këtë formë e kunkluzioneve me aritmetikë të thjeshtë nuk funksionon në këto zgjedhje, pasi subjektet e asaj që përbëjnë opozitën e Bashkuar konurojnë në lista më vete. Asaj çfarë I mungon këtij sondazhi është fakti se me sa përkthehen në mandate këto shifra për secilën palë. Dhe thembra e Akilit në këtë rast është LSI, pasi edhe nëse e marrim në përqindjen e 7 përqind për gjithë rajonin, sa mandate do të arrijë të nxjerrë realisht. Do të këtë 2 dhe bishtat do të humbasin në favor të mëdhejve? Ky sistem votimi nuk lejon që ato vota për të cilat LSI nuk nxjerr dot mandate ti shkojnë aleates PD, dhe anasjelltas. Në këtë mënyrë ai 48% që PS e zotëron është shumë më solid dhe më mandatprurës sesa çdo përqindje e opozitës që e ka votën të shpërndarë.

The same can be said for the graph of Vlora where the SP continues to stand at the quota of 61%, the DP which has an increase to 30% while the SMI at the threshold of 5 percent. In the explanatory note of Noto and Ora News it is emphasized that the percentage of the opposition goes to 35% and that in this way the SP risks losing the mandate of 8. So again arithmetic, but without making an explanation of how the mandates are divided. This is because the 5% of the SMI that Noto predicts, is insufficient for the SMI to get a mandate in Vlora. And this again brings the opposition to the figures of 30% as the maximum of its result. All these explanations apply to the fact of clarifying how the real election forecasts and the trend of the results are. In the lexicon kept by opposition actors, they often try to encourage it.