It doesn't matter if it is spotted, announced, neutralized: Tehran's attack on Israel, on the night between April 13 and 14, in response to the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus in early April, is destined to change the fate of the Middle East.
It doesn't even matter if the ayatollahs' intention was to destroy military targets in the northern desert and the Golan Heights, or simply to show the world that they have carried out their revenge. "The promise kept", is called the operation. Those 170 drones, 120 ballistic missiles and 30 cruise missiles launched by the Islamic Republic and almost completely intercepted and shot down before they hit the ground created the spectacular and terrifying shower of stars that we saw over the holy dome of the Temple Mount in Jerusalem .
But above all, it undoes the strategic principle that has always governed relations between Israel and Iran. "And that is to avoid direct confrontation," explains Nicola Pedde, director of IGS, Institute for Global Studies and former head of Middle East Research at the Military Center for Strategic Studies, Italy. "Until today, Iran has been governed by a first-generation elite who have been careful not to cross this red line, but the new generations, who are now in the majority, are not deterred. This will also lead Israel to ignore the paradigm that until now had allowed Iran to be hit anywhere, but not at home. And this makes us enter a new and dangerous phase". With at least five reasons to hope that the efforts of international diplomacy to mitigate the crisis will work.
The inevitable counterattack
There will be Israeli retaliation, because the war cabinet has authorized it, although without deciding when. "In Iran, as in Israel, politics is very polarized," explains Pedde, "despite a Western reading that presents it as monolithic, and today in Tehran there are those who are pushing for an immediate attack, but also those who want to weigh it, expanding the scope of regional alliances. What will make the difference will be the scale of the attack." A victimless cyber attack is one version. "If Iran's operation was designed to have high political value (striking Israeli territory) but no military effect, revealing all information about the operation 72 hours in advance - so that it could be prevented and contained without damage or victims - I believe that the Israeli reaction will be very different". History teaches us that the Israelis follow the strategy of deterrence, demonstrating a great force on the opponent, to avoid the possibility of further attacks, specifies the military strategist. As is happening in Gaza.
MILITARY STRUCTURES AND HEADQUARTERS
Objektivi i një sulmi në shkallë të gjerë nga Izraeli mund të jenë strukturat ushtarake të PasdaranËve dhe zinxhiri i furnizimit të projektit bërthamor iranian, thotë Pedde. “Nuk e di me çfarë rezultatesh praktike, sepse është një rrjet që është mbrojtur fuqishëm brenda bunkerëve gjatë viteve të fundit dhe për ta goditur atë në mënyrë efektive do të kërkonte një kapacitet shumë të fortë ushtarak”. Një aksion ndaj Hezbollahut? Është një nga opsionet, por nuk do të ndodhë sipas Pedde. “Ashtu siç ishte e nevojshme që Irani të sulmonte Izraelin, është e nevojshme që Izraeli të përgjigjet në të njëjtën masë. Jo te bishti, por te koka e gjarprit”.
PERGJIGJA E TEHRANIT
“Nëse kjo do të ndodhte, do të hapeshin skenarë të tjerë, duke filluar me reagimin e Teheranit, shumë ndryshe nga ai i parë natën e 13 prillit. Irani ndoshta do të nisë një sulm të përmasave më të mëdha, me më shumë valë dhe më gjatë, dhe pa e njoftuar: gjë që do të zvogëlonte kapacitetin mbrojtës të Izraelit.” Për të neutralizuar sulmin iranian, në të cilin u plagos nga predha një vajzë beduine, u desh sistemi i mbrojtjes kundërajrore Iron Dome, por edhe kontributi i aleatëve, në radhë të parë i amerikanëve, jordanezëve e deri sauditëve. “Flitet për shpenzim një miliard dollarësh”, thotë analisti, “që sugjeron se Irani gjithashtu mund të vendosë të sfidojë Izraelin për kohëzgjatjen e sulmit. Por edhe duke goditur aktorët në botën arabe që ata i konsiderojnë mbështetës të Izraelit: në zonën e Gjirit Persik, ku mund të shkaktojë ndërprerje të konsiderueshme në rrjedhën e burimeve të energjisë dhe vështirësi në prodhim, me pasoja globale”. Dhe në Jordani, një vend që luajti një rol të rëndësishëm në zmbrapsjen e sulmit të 13 prillit. “Ka qenë prej kohësh pjesë e një sistemi aleance që e vendos atë më pranë sferës perëndimore sesa me Iranin, pavarësisht kritikave të forta të shprehura për operacionin në Gaza”.
ROLI I SHTETEVE TË BASHKUARA
A scenario that international diplomacy is trying to avoid, starting with US President Joe Biden. "He offered Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a valuable way out, recognizing the political and military success of the defense, and inviting him to call it quits," explains Pedde. "It would be the optimal solution, but we have to understand if it is of interest or if it does not present a possible complication in the continuity of Netanyahu's government. I believe that there is a very personal factor that affects this crisis, as well as for Gaza". Beyond calls for a ceasefire (and the release of hostages on the other side), which are the primary objectives and must be pursued at all costs, says Pedde, the situation in the Gaza Strip remains extremely complex for two reasons. "The first is the desire of the Israelis to carry out this operation, which they define as "final", to eliminate the last four battalions of Hamas: but we have heard several times that "this operation is final". The second is that Hamas can be defeated militarily, but risks not being defeated politically, which opens important unknowns for the future. Biden immediately made it clear that the United States would not participate in a military response against Iran. "But this reluctance could disappear when a subsequent Iranian response would bring the escalation to such a level of uncertainty for Israel and the international community that the Americans would be forced to participate."
ATTENTION ATOMIC AGENCY
In all of this, the normally cautious International Atomic Energy Agency is sounding the alarm: Iran's nuclear program is experiencing alarming acceleration. "The fact that he wanted to send this message," concludes Pedde, "may be part of this crisis: the Iranians, faced with a more or less real threat, may abandon the non-proliferation treaty and push for the acceleration and militarization of the nuclear program . Which would complicate the scenario and bring us a really difficult situation to manage".
*This article was published by bota.al and reposted by Tiranapost.al