America, Israel and the Tehran Games. It all started with Arafat's trip...
The Iranian issue is the "cursed corner" in the Middle East quadrangle: the others are America, Israel, Saudi Arabia. Since 1979, the loss of an ally like the Shah of Persia in Tehran has created a tension that has never been resolved. The Palestinian issue has always been important. The real origin of the conflict is another, a radical rejection of the West and all its values: freedom, women's emancipation, political and religious pluralism, the secular state. The Shah had given Persian women Western-style rights, the Khomeinist revolution took them back to the Middle Ages.
On this "clash of civilizations", the Shiite clergy of Tehran founded the reconstruction of a regional imperialism, with a hegemonic plan over the entire Middle East. The alliance with the Palestine Liberation Organization, since the time of Yasser Arafat, was important: Iran wanted to take the Palestinian flag away from the Sunni Arabs, with whom it began a fierce competition. The Saudi monarchy has followed Iran down the same path for decades, for fear of suffering an Islamic revolution within itself. The Iranian regime's targets were and remain the other three corners of the quadrangle.
For 45 years, the Ayatollahs have proclaimed that they want to destroy Israel, expel America from the Middle East and return the holy places of Mecca and Medina to the "true faith", and therefore expel the Saudis who are the custodians of theirs. The long jihadist season saw Iran and Arabia competing to preach hatred and violence – with rivers of petrodollars going to fund fundamentalist mosques and madrassas all over the world, including the West.
The Palestinian issue has become an alibi to exonerate the ruling classes of the Middle East from their repeated failures. The Zionist enemy and US imperialism provided a scapegoat, while oil wealth was squandered on weapons and corruption.
In the leadership of the United States, a bipartisan consensus united Democrats and Republicans in the desire to resolve the Palestinian issue by aiming for two states. Several peace agreements sponsored by US presidents led in this direction. But the attacks of September 11, 2001 cemented the alliance with Israel, giving it unprecedented strength: not only the important Jewish community, but also many other Americans of all faiths and ethnic backgrounds came to regard Israel as its only ally. reliable, the suit shares the same values.
The "war on terror" launched by George W. Bush gave new ammunition to those who wanted to portray an Islamophobic America, which aimed to organize new crusades. Iran saw new opportunities, its "axis of resistance" gained more and more stability: from Syria to Iraq, from Lebanon to Yemen.
Another dynamic was triggered when the strengthening of the Muslim Brotherhood and ISIS threatened the moderate and conservative regimes of the Sunni-Arab world. The Arab Spring prompted Barack Obama to abandon—temporarily—an authoritarian ally in Egypt in favor of a bottom-up revolution. At the same time, Obama initiated dialogue to restore Iran, leading to the nuclear deal.
The Saudi Kingdom, on the one hand, felt betrayed by its historic American ally; on the other hand observed with growing admiration Israel's economic and technological marvel. Around the Gulf, modernization experiments flourished in the Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, followed by Arabia. Instead of an enemy to be eliminated, Israel became a model to be emulated. Until the Abraham Accords in 2020, a prelude to a final fusion between Riyadh and Tel Aviv. An encirclement of Iran by Arab-Sunni monarchies that disrupted the victim narrative.
On October 7, 2023, Iran believed it would break that isolation and regain the initiative. Twelve months later the budget is not favorable to Tehran's Shiite theocracy. Israel's superior military effectiveness has dealt extraordinary blows to Iran's "regional killers": Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis. American support for Israel has been crucial. Perhaps the Biden-Harris administration will pay an electoral price for this on November 5: especially in Michigan's Arab community.
In reality, America itself has not decided "what to do with Iran". Biden has never wanted to fully implement sanctions against Iranian oil: it continues to be exported to China and India, despite US military fleets being able to block it. A stream of "doves" in the Democratic Party would like to pick up where Obama left off, reviving negotiations on nuclear energy. But the White House, with the consent of Vice President Harris, has always supported Israel's right to respond to Iranian missile attacks.
*This article was published by Bota.al and reposted by Tiranapost.al