The return of Donald J. Trump to the US presidency could usher in a lonely and dangerous period for Europe, which is already mired in economic stagnation and shaken by war on its eastern doorstep. It is a moment that European leaders agree requires renewed and strong leadership from the continent's two largest economies.
But France and Germany, which are also the most important countries of the European Union, have difficulty responding to the call. They themselves are falling victim to the same political forces that helped Trump gain popularity among conservatives and swing voters in the United States. Among them, the reaction against the rapid increase in consumer prices; anxiety and anger over increased immigration; the rapid erosion of public trust in political elites.
The main political parties have lost support. Populists and nationalists, including once fringe parties on the far right, have grown.
After months of battles over taxes, spending and how best to revive Germany's economy, Chancellor Olaf Scholz broke up his governing coalition last week, firing the finance minister. The country seems to be heading towards early elections, which will apparently overthrow Mr. Scholz from power.
A far-right party and a new populist party gained ground in recent regional elections, and Trump's victory could further boost their credibility relative to the main parties in the upcoming federal election.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron has experienced the weakening of his power, as a result of a disastrous decision to call early elections this year. France took months to form a government after that vote, which left the lower house of Parliament almost deadlocked and brought a shaky coalition in power against the far right and left.
The uncertainty from Paris to Berlin has created a continental power vacuum that could embolden Russia in its war in Ukraine. That risks hampering Europe's ability to respond to a global trade war if Trump moves quickly next year to impose steep tariffs on imports into the United States.
It is also likely to further complicate efforts by European leaders to craft a common policy to protect their industries from a surge in low-cost Chinese imports, including electric cars and other clean energy technologies.
And it could complicate the already difficult political task of increasing European military spending, which leaders and analysts agree will gain urgency amid threats from Trump to withdraw from NATO, or withdraw US security guarantees. for European allies.
There are other, more stable leaders whose roles in Europe could be strengthened to meet the crisis. But they have their own complications.
Keir Starmer, who was elected prime minister of Britain this summer, has already been hit by public outcry over gifts he and his wife have received - and his country is not in the European Union.
Giorgia Meloni, Italy's prime minister, is a populist who may forge a close relationship with Trump — or who may find her relatively centrist approach to international affairs and support for Ukraine at odds with Trump's own positions.
Analysts agree that the leaders best suited to lead a more independent and muscular Europe should come from Berlin or Paris, the very places that are now most troubled. / With abbreviations from the New York Times - originally published by Bota.al
